本文進行模擬天降,統計達至不同combo數的機率
目前模擬各 1000000 次,未來會持續進行模擬增加數據可靠度
雖然肯定有人覺得算機率沒用,但事實並不是
想測試其他版面或狀態可留言或自行更改source code的版面
前提:
1. 所有位置天降六種珠的機率均相同
2. 為方便起見(我懶),不考慮消5掉1強化珠帶來的影響
source code: https://onlinegdb.com/PSs4RBctG
可把第70行右邊的「10」換成任意正整數作為模擬次數
目錄
1. 首消10c全版
2. 疊消1層
2.1
2.2
2.3
3. 疊消2層
4. 疊消3層
----------------------------------------------------------
1.1.首消10c全版
combo |
次數 |
=的機率 |
>=的機率 |
10 |
379530 |
37.9530% |
100.0000% |
11 |
311879 |
31.1879% |
62.0470% |
12 |
175696 |
17.5696% |
30.8591% |
13 |
79914 |
7.9914% |
13.2895% |
14 |
32989 |
3.2989% |
5.2981% |
15 |
12678 |
1.2678% |
1.9992% |
16 |
4730 |
0.4730% |
0.7314% |
17 |
1681 |
0.1681% |
0.2584% |
18 |
601 |
0.0601% |
0.0903% |
19 |
201 |
0.0201% |
0.0302% |
20 |
69 |
0.0069% |
0.0101% |
21 |
17 |
0.0017% |
0.0032% |
22 |
12 |
0.0012% |
0.0015% |
23 |
1 |
0.0001% |
0.0003% |
24 |
2 |
0.0002% |
0.0002% |
2.1.疊消1層(1組)
combo |
次數 |
=的機率 |
>=的機率 |
10 |
305022 |
30.5022% |
100.0000% |
11 |
327317 |
32.7317% |
69.4978% |
12 |
201839 |
20.1839% |
36.7661% |
13 |
97629 |
9.7629% |
16.5822% |
14 |
41803 |
4.1803% |
6.8193% |
15 |
16611 |
1.6611% |
2.6390% |
16 |
6152 |
0.6152% |
0.9779% |
17 |
2354 |
0.2354% |
0.3627% |
18 |
792 |
0.0792% |
0.1273% |
19 |
309 |
0.0309% |
0.0481% |
20 |
110 |
0.0110% |
0.0172% |
21 |
42 |
0.0042% |
0.0062% |
22 |
11 |
0.0011% |
0.0020% |
23 |
6 |
0.0006% |
0.0009% |
24 |
1 |
0.0001% |
0.0003% |
25 |
1 |
0.0001% |
0.0002% |
26 |
1 |
0.0001% |
0.0001% |
3.1.疊消2組
combo |
次數 |
=的機率 |
>=的機率 |
10 |
285008 |
28.5008% |
100.0000% |
11 |
323383 |
32.3383% |
71.4992% |
12 |
210697 |
21.0697% |
39.1609% |
13 |
105230 |
10.5230% |
18.0912% |
14 |
46001 |
4.6001% |
7.5682% |
15 |
18630 |
1.8630% |
2.9681% |
16 |
7015 |
0.7015% |
1.1051% |
17 |
2578 |
0.2578% |
0.4036% |
18 |
918 |
0.0918% |
0.1458% |
19 |
353 |
0.0353% |
0.0540% |
20 |
116 |
0.0116% |
0.0187% |
21 |
42 |
0.0042% |
0.0071% |
22 |
19 |
0.0019% |
0.0029% |
23 |
6 |
0.0006% |
0.0010% |
24 |
2 |
0.0002% |
0.0004% |
25 |
2 |
0.0002% |
0.0002% |
4.1.疊消3+層(I)
combo |
次數 |
=的機率 |
>=的機率 |
6 |
63458 |
6.3458% |
100.0000% |
7 |
93578 |
9.3578% |
93.6542% |
8 |
120123 |
12.0123% |
84.2964% |
9 |
88434 |
8.8434% |
72.2841% |
10 |
222832 |
22.2832% |
63.4407% |
11 |
201417 |
20.1417% |
41.1575% |
12 |
117116 |
11.7116% |
21.0158% |
13 |
55282 |
5.5282% |
9.3042% |
14 |
23092 |
2.3092% |
3.7760% |
15 |
9207 |
0.9207% |
1.4668% |
16 |
3505 |
0.3505% |
0.5461% |
17 |
1261 |
0.1261% |
0.1956% |
18 |
446 |
0.0446% |
0.0695% |
19 |
170 |
0.0170% |
0.0249% |
20 |
56 |
0.0056% |
0.0079% |
21 |
16 |
0.0016% |
0.0023% |
22 |
6 |
0.0006% |
0.0007% |
23 |
0 |
0.0000% |
0.0001% |
24 |
1 |
0.0001% |
0.0001% |
4.2.疊消3+層(II)
combo |
次數 |
=的機率 |
>=的機率 |
9 |
80913 |
8.0913% |
100.0000% |
10 |
264767 |
26.4767% |
91.9087% |
11 |
279982 |
27.9982% |
65.4320% |
12 |
191962 |
19.1962% |
37.4338% |
13 |
102303 |
10.2303% |
18.2376% |
14 |
47797 |
4.7797% |
8.0073% |
15 |
19765 |
1.9765% |
3.2276% |
16 |
7839 |
0.7839% |
1.2511% |
17 |
2975 |
0.2975% |
0.4672% |
18 |
1047 |
0.1047% |
0.1697% |
19 |
426 |
0.0426% |
0.0650% |
20 |
149 |
0.0149% |
0.0224% |
21 |
43 |
0.0043% |
0.0075% |
22 |
18 |
0.0018% |
0.0032% |
23 |
10 |
0.0010% |
0.0014% |
24 |
3 |
0.0003% |
0.0004% |
25 |
1 |
0.0001% |
0.0001% |
1. 首消全版有天降的機率約62%
2. 天降4c:機率約5%,如「飛炎與冰結的支配者」地獄級R3轉9c賭降4c,期望約20回合能過,體感也差不多
3. 天降5c:機率約2%,如「一月挑戰任務 Lv.9」王2轉10c賭降5c(注意每多吼1c的難度約為2.5倍,轉9c賭降6c和轉10c賭降5c有很大分別,看到有10c版後就保持這版面,黑到有吧)
4. 天降7c:機率約0.25%,400分之1,這是純手轉解當前版本頗為流行的17c盾的最低需求,真的能黑出來也很厲害,至少我完全不想試
5. 手轉解20c盾:4000000 次模擬中只有 539 次 20+c,假設天降到20c的機率是1/10000,1000回合裡有降到20c的機率也只有9.51%,而且這個的前提是每回從10c版出發。不要看到有16 17c就覺得終點近了,實際上還差得遠(有14c的情況下只有5%機率降到17c,可以此推算)
6. 解高c盾疊的層數越多(1~3層),達成高combo的機率越高;但每層疊1組即可,避免因斷珠位置過多而減低高combo機率